HURRICANE SUITER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL702009
1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2009
 
...TEST...TEST...TEST...THIS IS A DRILL...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE
WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST EAST OF PANAMA CITY IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST EAST OF PANAMA CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE STEINHATCHEE
RIVER...AND FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO INTRACOASTAL CITY.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N  87.4W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  953 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 105SE  75SW  90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N  87.4W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N  87.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.5N  88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  35SW  30NW.
50 KT... 85NE  95SE  75SW  80NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.7N  89.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.8N  90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 65NE  55SE  55SW  65NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 30.9N  92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 31.5N  95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 33.0N  98.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N  87.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
HURRICANE SUITER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL702009               
1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2009

...TEST...TEST...TEST...THIS IS A DRILL...                                                                                                           
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SUITER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       4      24      45      64      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1      25      36      28      25      NA
TROPICAL STORM   X      38      53      23      16       6      NA
HURRICANE       99      62      18      18      10       5      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        4      36       6       4       2       1      NA
HUR CAT 2       38      11       4       4       2       X      NA
HUR CAT 3       54      12       6       7       4       2      NA
HUR CAT 4        4       3       2       3       3       1      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND  100KT    70KT    45KT    30KT    25KT    20KT    NA  
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
ATLANTA GA     34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 13   4(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
ST MARKS FL    34 11   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
APALACHICOLA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
APALACHICOLA   50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34 10   6(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34 50   5(55)   1(56)   X(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PENSACOLA FL   50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PENSACOLA FL   64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOBILE AL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOBILE AL      50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOBILE AL      64 63  14(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 
GULFPORT MS    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GULFPORT MS    50 71  13(84)   1(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
GULFPORT MS    64 19  27(46)   4(50)   1(51)   X(51)   1(52)   X(52)
 
BURAS LA       34 65  12(77)   2(79)   1(80)   X(80)   1(81)   X(81)
BURAS LA       50 12  18(30)   3(33)   1(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)
BURAS LA       64  2   6( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34 20  10(30)   3(33)   1(34)   1(35)   1(36)   X(36)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
JACKSON MS     34 35  27(62)   7(69)   1(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)
JACKSON MS     50  4  11(15)   3(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
JACKSON MS     64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 55  21(76)   4(80)   X(80)   1(81)   1(82)   X(82)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  8  24(32)   7(39)   2(41)   X(41)   1(42)   X(42)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  1   6( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  5  10(15)   6(21)   4(25)   3(28)   1(29)   X(29)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34 21  34(55)  10(65)   2(67)   2(69)   X(69)   X(69)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  3  12(15)   8(23)   3(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  8  22(30)  12(42)   4(46)   3(49)   1(50)   X(50)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  1   4( 5)   6(11)   4(15)   4(19)   1(20)   X(20)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  2   5( 7)   6(13)   5(18)   6(24)   2(26)   X(26)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   1(12)   X(12)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  2   7( 9)   5(14)   4(18)   5(23)   2(25)   X(25)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  2   6( 8)   6(14)   7(21)   8(29)   2(31)   X(31)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   X(13)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   5(12)   9(21)   2(23)   X(23)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   2(12)   X(12)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   8(19)   2(21)   X(21)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   5( 9)   8(17)   3(20)   X(20)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   8(16)   2(18)   X(18)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   X(13)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
NNNN
