HURRICANE SUITER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL702009
2100 UTC TUE JUN 02 2009
 
...TEST...TEST...TEST...THIS IS A DRILL...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE
WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST EAST OF DESTIN IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
ALSO...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA
COAST WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST EAST OF DESTIN TO THE MOUTH OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...AND FOR
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO MORGAN CITY.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST WEST
OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N  88.1W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 105SE  75SW  90NW.
34 KT.......125NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 180SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N  88.1W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N  87.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.5N  88.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  95SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.7N  90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 30.8N  91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 31.0N  93.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.0N  96.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 33.5N  99.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N  88.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

HURRICANE SUITER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL702009               
2100 UTC TUE JUN 02 2009

...TEST...TEST...TEST...THIS IS A DRILL...                                            
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SUITER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X      12      33      56      68      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       4      40      35      25      23      NA
TROPICAL STORM   4      63      35      19      12       6      NA
HURRICANE       96      34      13      14       7       3      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       52      22       5       4       2       1      NA
HUR CAT 2       32       7       4       5       2       1      NA
HUR CAT 3       12       4       4       3       2       1      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       1       2       1       1      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   80KT    60KT    35KT    25KT    20KT    20KT    NA  
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
ATLANTA GA     34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  6   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
APALACHICOLA   34 10   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  8   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  5   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34 15   5(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PENSACOLA FL   50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PENSACOLA FL   64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
MOBILE AL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOBILE AL      50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOBILE AL      64 79   4(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 
GULFPORT MS    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GULFPORT MS    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GULFPORT MS    64 43  16(59)   1(60)   X(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 
BURAS LA       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BURAS LA       50 24  11(35)   1(36)   1(37)   X(37)   1(38)   X(38)
BURAS LA       64  2   4( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34 23   7(30)   X(30)   1(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  3   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
JACKSON MS     34 46  20(66)   2(68)   1(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)
JACKSON MS     50  5   8(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 74  11(85)   1(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 20  24(44)   3(47)   1(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  1  10(11)   2(13)   X(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  6   9(15)   4(19)   3(22)   1(23)   1(24)   X(24)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34 39  30(69)   5(74)   1(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  5  20(25)   5(30)   1(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34 12  26(38)   9(47)   2(49)   2(51)   1(52)   X(52)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  1   8( 9)   5(14)   4(18)   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  4   4( 8)   6(14)   5(19)   3(22)   1(23)   X(23)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  3   7(10)   5(15)   3(18)   3(21)   1(22)   X(22)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  4   6(10)   8(18)   5(23)   5(28)   1(29)   X(29)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  1   4( 5)   4( 9)   6(15)   5(20)   1(21)   X(21)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   5(12)   6(18)   1(19)   X(19)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   5(11)   6(17)   1(18)   X(18)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   5(15)   1(16)   X(16)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
NNNN
